With just over two weeks to go, we explore voter intentions and expectations, how markets tend to perform after US elections, and the potential impact of each candidate’s policies on the economy and different industry sectors.
Biden leads Trump in the polls by a wide margin: about 10 percentage points nationally, though by a narrower margin in likely swing states. Popular polls-based statistical models, ranging from the Good Judgment Project’s Superforecasters to the US election prediction model built by The Economist, currently place Biden’s chances of winning the election at more than three out of four. However, these surveys of voter intentions could be affected by all sorts of biases – including a misrepresentation of the preferences which, anecdotally, appears to happen with non-mainstream candidates such as Trump. Notably, as we saw with the US election four years ago (and Brexit), they may not be very accurate.
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Chief Economist & Macro Strategist
Group Chief Investment Officer
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