Mega-IPOs: opportunity meets absorption
8 mins to read this article
Daniele Antonucci
Daniele Antonucci is a managing director, co-head of investment and chief investment officer at Quintet Private Bank. Based in Luxembourg, he jointly chairs the investment committee, owning decision-making and performance outcomes. Daniele oversees the investment research and strategy feeding into portfolios and the teams of specialists across macro, fixed income, equities, private markets, fund solutions and structured products. He leads the network of chief strategists, formulating and communicating the house view on the economy, markets and investing to financial advisors, clients and the media.
Prior to joining Quintet in 2020 as chief economist and macro strategist, Daniele served as chief euro area economist at Morgan Stanley in London. He completed the High Performance Leadership Programme at Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, holds a master’s degree in economics from Duke University and graduated from the Sapienza University of Rome. A lecturer at the Luxembourg School of Business, Daniele is a published author in economics journals, a frequent contributor to investment media, a speaker on CNBC and Bloomberg TV, and an ECB Shadow Council member.
A new wave of equity supply
A new group of large, innovation-led companies is moving towards public markets. The names attracting most attention include SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic. Together, they could represent more than USD 3tn to 4tn of market value. That would make this one of the largest waves of new equity supply in decades, and potentially the largest liquidity shock since the dot-com era.
These companies sit at the centre of powerful themes, including artificial intelligence, connectivity and space infrastructure. That helps explain the strong interest around them. Even so, the wider market question is not only whether demand exists. It is whether capital can still be allocated efficiently when several very large growth stories come to market at the same time.
Large listings can shape market behaviour beyond the companies involved. New issuance often draws capital away from existing holdings as investors make room for new positions. In this case, the scale of supply may matter as much as the individual stories.
That is one reason these deals deserve to be viewed as part of a broader market shift. This is not simply a fresh pipeline of listings. It is also a test of how public markets absorb large capital needs in sectors where expectations are already high.
Daniele Antonucci
Daniele Antonucci is a managing director, co-head of investment and chief investment officer at Quintet Private Bank. Based in Luxembourg, he jointly chairs the investment committee, owning decision-making and performance outcomes. Daniele oversees the investment research and strategy feeding into portfolios and the teams of specialists across macro, fixed income, equities, private markets, fund solutions and structured products. He leads the network of chief strategists, formulating and communicating the house view on the economy, markets and investing to financial advisors, clients and the media.
Prior to joining Quintet in 2020 as chief economist and macro strategist, Daniele served as chief euro area economist at Morgan Stanley in London. He completed the High Performance Leadership Programme at Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, holds a master’s degree in economics from Duke University and graduated from the Sapienza University of Rome. A lecturer at the Luxembourg School of Business, Daniele is a published author in economics journals, a frequent contributor to investment media, a speaker on CNBC and Bloomberg TV, and an ECB Shadow Council member.
Marc Decker
Marc Decker is Co-Head of Direct Equities at Quintet Private Bank, based in Munich. Since joining the group in 2018, he has held several senior leadership positions and plays a key role in shaping the group’s equity investment strategy. In his current position, he oversees the management and ongoing development of the group’s equity model portfolios, with a strong emphasis on disciplined single‑stock selection and long‑term value creation across markets.
With more than two decades of investment experience, Decker brings deep expertise across equity and multi‑asset strategies. He began his career in 1999 as a portfolio manager at DWS in Frankfurt, before joining MEAG in Munich, where he worked as a multi‑asset portfolio manager. He later co‑founded Skalis Asset Management, an independent investment boutique specializing in multi‑asset solutions, and served as a member of its Management Board, combining entrepreneurial leadership with hands‑on portfolio management responsibility.
Decker is a CAIA Charterholder and holds a Diplom‑Betriebswirt (FH) degree in Business Administration from Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, equivalent to a Master’s degree. His investment approach is defined by rigorous analysis, strategic perspective and a strong commitment to delivering consistent outcomes for clients.
Capital raising, not a traditional exit
A useful way to understand this wave is to look at its purpose. These are likely to be capital-raising events designed to fund very large investment plans, especially in AI and computing infrastructure. They are not classic exit listings in which the main objective is to provide a route out for existing shareholders.
That distinction matters. It means investors are not just funding future growth. They are also being asked to support businesses with high and persistent capital needs. In other words, the next phase of growth depends not only on demand, but also on continued spending.
Here are our thoughts on how to approach all this:
- SpaceX and the cost of scale
SpaceX illustrates this well. Its model is unusually broad. It combines launch services, satellite internet through Starlink and longer-term AI and data ambitions. Starlink appears to account for around 60 per cent of revenue and, in the current picture, seems to be the only profit generator. SpaceX also has an estimated 80 per cent share of the US launch market, which underlines its strategic position.
That scale creates clear appeal, but it also comes with a demanding valuation debate. Our analysis suggests, SpaceX could come at roughly 70 to 90 times sales. That is a very ambitious range for a company whose investment case still relies heavily on future growth and execution. - OpenAI and Anthropic face similar questions
A similar pattern appears in artificial intelligence. OpenAI has built a platform that reaches both enterprise and consumer users. Its growth story is powerful, but the financial demands are also large. Estimates point to cash burn of around USD 14bn and a valuation range of roughly 35 to 40 times sales.
Anthropic looks somewhat different in shape. Its focus on enterprise AI and safety may support steadier revenues over time. Even so, valuation remains a central question here too, with a possible IPO valuation of USD 400bn to 500bn, compared with a private valuation closer to USD 900bn. That gap matters because it shows how quickly public market pricing can become the key point of pressure.
The balance between growth and valuation
Taken together, these three companies offer scale, technological reach and long-term growth potential. They also share a common challenge. Investors are being asked to buy into future development rather than established cash flows.
That places valuation at the centre of the investment case. Expectations already look very demanding relative to current revenues, profitability and cash flow visibility. Where that is true, even a strong business can struggle if public market pricing runs too far ahead of what investors are prepared to support.
This is why the risk is not simply that enthusiasm fades. The more specific risk is de-rating after listing. If early pricing reflects very optimistic assumptions, any signs of slower progress, higher costs or weaker market appetite could lead to a sharp reset in valuation.
That risk looks especially relevant in businesses with heavy capital expenditure, limited near-term earnings visibility and fierce competition for funding. It is also relevant where governance concerns may make public investors more cautious.
Governance and competition still matter
Governance is part of that picture. Founder-led structures can support long-term vision, but they can also limit the influence of minority shareholders. SpaceX is the clearest example in this group, given the concentration of control by Elon Musk.
Competition matters as well, especially in AI. OpenAI and Anthropic are not building in an empty field. They are competing with each other and with very well-funded large technology groups. That can raise investment needs, compress margins and shorten the period in which any one company enjoys a clear advantage.
For investors, the issue is therefore broader than any single listing. If a small number of thematic IPOs absorb a large share of available capital, pressure may build elsewhere in the market. Opportunity costs can rise, and other growth assets may have to compete harder for funding.
That is why this prospective IPO wave deserves attention. It highlights a shift in the role of public equity markets. More and more, they are being used to finance long-duration, infrastructure-like growth. The opportunity set may be compelling, but the need for discipline, selectivity and a clear understanding of risk remains just as important.
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Information correct as of 10 June 2026.
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