This note contains an overview of our market views, what we are watching, and our portfolio strategy. Any reference to portfolio positioning relates to our flagship discretionary portfolios. Clients with bespoke or advisory portfolios should consult their Client Advisor for the latest update on their portfolio.
Spring Statement - Key points
No new policy measures were announced in today’s Spring Statement. Rachel Reeves noted that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is now expected to grow slightly more slowly in 2026 than outlined in November’s Autumn Budget, before strengthening in 2027 and 2028.
Although no new updates were announced today, the Statement provides a timely opportunity to revisit several significant measures originally introduced in the Autumn Budget.
- Pensions: One of the most notable is the plan for pensions to be brought into taxable estates from April 2027. Although further clarity is still required on how the rules will operate in practice, this change represents a material shift in estate planning. It is not too soon to begin preparations, and early engagement may help to avoid unnecessary complexity in the future.
- Dividend Tax: From 6 April, the scheduled increase in dividend tax rates will also take effect. Business owners who retain control over the timing of dividend payments may wish to consider bringing forward distributions ahead of April in order to benefit from the current, more favourable rates.
- Business Property Relief (BPR) & Agricultural Property Relief (AGR): There were likewise no further updates to BPR or Agricultural Property Relief APR. The new £2.5 million BPR limit, which remains transferable between spouses, will apply from 6 April. Individuals holding qualifying assets may still have a brief window in which to undertake planning before these measures come into effect.
Wider economic context
Although Budget figures appear broadly unchanged from November, they come at a time when the escalating crisis in the Middle East is injecting renewed uncertainty into the global economy. Energy markets have become increasingly volatile, with rising geopolitical tensions pushing oil and gas prices higher. This shift risks disrupting the previously expected path of easing inflation and potential interest rate cuts, and it may render the assumptions behind the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projections outdated far sooner than anticipated.
Market signals reflect this deterioration in sentiment. UK gilt yields have come under pressure as investors reassess the global outlook, highlighting how sensitive the public finances remain to further shocks. In light of this, we have recently reduced our gilt exposure. UK equities are also experiencing a risk off backdrop, though we maintain a moderate tactical overweight given the UK market’s historically resilient, more defensive sector composition.
Global uncertainty has also renewed demand for safe haven assets, with gold benefiting from concerns of a prolonged conflict. We have increased our allocation accordingly. While the OBR continues to forecast debt stabilisation over the coming decade, such projections rely on assumptions that may shift quickly in the current environment. The evolving situation in the Middle East reinforces that risks are rising rather than receding.
We continue to monitor developments closely and will keep you updated as the situation unfolds.
Further support
To help you navigate the changing tax landscape, we have prepared a new Budget Factsheet, providing a clear summary of tax changes scheduled between 2026 and 2029. This serves as a practical starting point for understanding how forthcoming measures may affect your planning.
Should you wish to discuss how any of these developments relate to your personal circumstances, please speak to your Client Advisor.
Important Information
Information correct as of 3 March 2026.
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